https://macroornoise.com/ What U.S. economic releases actually do to markets Sat, 08 Aug 2026 00:00:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-07-30-pcerelease-2026-07-30-pcePCE for June 2026 came in at 3.7%, down from 4.1%. The USD moved -0.92% that day — about ×4.2 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 98% of all PCE releases since 2000.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-07-16-retail-salesrelease-2026-07-16-retail-salesRetail sales for June 2026 came in at 0.2%, down from 1.0%. The 10Y moved +2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 31% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Thu, 16 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-07-15-ppirelease-2026-07-15-ppiPPI for June 2026 came in at 5.5%, down from 6.0%. The 2Y moved -5.0 bps that day — about ×1.3 a normal day for that year, larger than 79% of all PPI releases since 2000.Wed, 15 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-07-14-cpirelease-2026-07-14-cpiCPI for June 2026 came in at 3.5%, down from 4.2%. The 10Y moved -4.0 bps that day — about ×1.2 a normal day for that year, larger than 57% of all CPI releases since 2000.Tue, 14 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-07-02-nfp-jobsrelease-2026-07-02-nfp-jobsJobs report for June 2026 came in at 20k jobs, down from 63k jobs. The 10Y moved +1.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.3), larger than 14% of all Jobs report releases since 2000.Thu, 02 Jul 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-06-25-pcerelease-2026-06-25-pcePCE for May 2026 came in at 4.1%, up from 3.8%. The USD moved -0.29% that day — about ×1.3 a normal day for that year, larger than 73% of all PCE releases since 2000.Thu, 25 Jun 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-06-17-retail-salesrelease-2026-06-17-retail-salesRetail sales for May 2026 came in at 1.0%, up from 0.7%. The 10Y moved +6.0 bps that day — about ×1.8 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 70% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Wed, 17 Jun 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-06-11-ppirelease-2026-06-11-ppiPPI for May 2026 came in at 6.0%, up from 5.7%. The 2Y moved -8.0 bps that day — about ×2.1 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 90% of all PPI releases since 2000.Thu, 11 Jun 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-06-10-cpirelease-2026-06-10-cpiCPI for May 2026 came in at 4.2%, up from 3.8%. The 10Y moved +2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 34% of all CPI releases since 2000.Wed, 10 Jun 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-06-05-nfp-jobsrelease-2026-06-05-nfp-jobsJobs report for May 2026 came in at 63k jobs, down from 148k jobs. The 10Y moved +8.0 bps that day — about ×2.4 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 72% of all Jobs report releases since 2000.Fri, 05 Jun 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-05-28-pcerelease-2026-05-28-pcePCE for April 2026 came in at 3.8%, up from 3.5%. The USD moved -0.13% that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 40% of all PCE releases since 2000.Thu, 28 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-05-14-retail-salesrelease-2026-05-14-retail-salesRetail sales for April 2026 came in at 0.7%, down from 1.7%. The 10Y moved +1.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.3), larger than 18% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Thu, 14 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-05-13-ppirelease-2026-05-13-ppiPPI for April 2026 came in at 5.7%, up from 4.3%. The 2Y moved -2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.5), larger than 48% of all PPI releases since 2000.Wed, 13 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-05-12-cpirelease-2026-05-12-cpiCPI for April 2026 came in at 3.8%, up from 3.3%. The 10Y moved +4.0 bps that day — about ×1.2 a normal day for that year, larger than 57% of all CPI releases since 2000.Tue, 12 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-05-08-nfp-jobsrelease-2026-05-08-nfp-jobsJobs report for April 2026 came in at 148k jobs, down from 214k jobs. The 10Y moved -3.0 bps that day — roughly an ordinary day (×0.9), larger than 34% of all Jobs report releases since 2000.Fri, 08 May 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-30-pcerelease-2026-04-30-pcePCE for March 2026 came in at 3.5%, up from 2.9%. The USD moved -0.36% that day — about ×1.7 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 79% of all PCE releases since 2000.Thu, 30 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-21-retail-salesrelease-2026-04-21-retail-salesRetail sales for March 2026 came in at 1.7%, up from 0.9%. The 10Y moved +4.0 bps that day — about ×1.2 a normal day for that year, larger than 55% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Tue, 21 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-14-ppirelease-2026-04-14-ppiPPI for March 2026 came in at 4.3%, up from 3.4%. The 2Y moved -2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.5), larger than 48% of all PPI releases since 2000.Tue, 14 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-10-cpirelease-2026-04-10-cpiCPI for March 2026 came in at 3.3%, up from 2.4%. The 10Y moved +2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 34% of all CPI releases since 2000.Fri, 10 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-09-pcerelease-2026-04-09-pcePCE for March 2026 came in at 3.5%, up from 2.9%. The USD moved -0.13% that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 40% of all PCE releases since 2000.Thu, 09 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-03-nfp-jobsrelease-2026-04-03-nfp-jobsJobs report for March 2026 came in at 214k jobs, up from -156k jobs. The 10Y moved +4.0 bps that day — about ×1.2 a normal day for that year, larger than 43% of all Jobs report releases since 2000.Fri, 03 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-04-01-retail-salesrelease-2026-04-01-retail-salesRetail sales for March 2026 came in at 1.7%, up from 0.9%. The 10Y moved +3.0 bps that day — roughly an ordinary day (×0.9), larger than 43% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Wed, 01 Apr 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-03-18-ppirelease-2026-03-18-ppiPPI for February 2026 came in at 3.4%, up from 3.0%. The 2Y moved +8.0 bps that day — about ×2.1 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 90% of all PPI releases since 2000.Wed, 18 Mar 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-03-13-pcerelease-2026-03-13-pcePCE for February 2026 came in at 2.9%, down from 2.9%. The USD moved +0.61% that day — about ×2.8 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 94% of all PCE releases since 2000.Fri, 13 Mar 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-03-11-cpirelease-2026-03-11-cpiCPI for February 2026 came in at 2.4%, up from 2.4%. The 10Y moved +6.0 bps that day — about ×1.8 a normal day for that year, a large reaction, larger than 76% of all CPI releases since 2000.Wed, 11 Mar 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-03-06-nfp-jobsrelease-2026-03-06-nfp-jobsJobs report for February 2026 came in at -156k jobs, down from 160k jobs. The 10Y moved +2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 23% of all Jobs report releases since 2000.Fri, 06 Mar 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-03-06-retail-salesrelease-2026-03-06-retail-salesRetail sales for February 2026 came in at 0.9%, up from -0.0%. The 10Y moved +2.0 bps that day — quieter than an ordinary day (×0.6), larger than 31% of all Retail sales releases since 2000.Fri, 06 Mar 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-02-27-ppirelease-2026-02-27-ppiPPI for January 2026 came in at 3.0%, down from 3.1%. The 2Y moved -4.0 bps that day — roughly an ordinary day (×1.1), larger than 68% of all PPI releases since 2000.Fri, 27 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-02-20-pcerelease-2026-02-20-pcePCE for January 2026 came in at 2.9%, unchanged from 2.9%. The USD moved -0.21% that day — roughly an ordinary day (×1.0), larger than 58% of all PCE releases since 2000.Fri, 20 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/#2026-02-13-cpirelease-2026-02-13-cpiCPI for January 2026 came in at 2.4%, down from 2.7%. The 10Y moved -5.0 bps that day — about ×1.5 a normal day for that year, larger than 68% of all CPI releases since 2000.Fri, 13 Feb 2026 13:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/cpi-release-dates-2026/https://macroornoise.com/cpi-release-dates-2026/Every 2026 U.S. CPI release date at 8:30 a.m. ET, with the measured 10-year Treasury move on each one — not just the dates. Next release: Aug 12, 2026.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/cpi-impact-on-10-year-treasury/https://macroornoise.com/cpi-impact-on-10-year-treasury/On CPI day the 10-year Treasury swings about ×1.58 a normal day, but the direction is a coin flip. 37 releases measured, plus the latest reaction.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/fomc-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/fomc-impact-on-treasury-yields/On FOMC decision days the 10-year Treasury moves about ×1.4 a normal day, but the direction is not a reliable rule. 24 decisions measured against a baseline.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/nfp-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/nfp-impact-on-treasury-yields/Jobs-report days are the biggest scheduled mover of Treasury yields, about ×2 a normal day, but the direction is unpredictable. 36 releases measured.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/pce-impact-on-the-us-dollar/https://macroornoise.com/pce-impact-on-the-us-dollar/The Fed's preferred inflation gauge barely moves the dollar: PCE days run about ×0.7 a normal day, because CPI already told the story. 35 releases.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/gdp-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/gdp-impact-on-treasury-yields/GDP describes a quarter that already ended, so Treasury yields move about as much as a normal day when it lands. 12 advance estimates measured.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/ppi-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/ppi-impact-on-treasury-yields/PPI moves the rate-sensitive 2-year Treasury about ×1.5 a normal day, with no reliable direction. The 10-year reacts less. 36 releases measured.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/retail-sales-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/retail-sales-impact-on-treasury-yields/Retail sales barely moves the 10-year Treasury: about ×1.3 a normal day, just short of statistically significant. 38 releases measured against a baseline.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/jobless-claims-impact-on-treasury-yields/https://macroornoise.com/jobless-claims-impact-on-treasury-yields/Weekly jobless claims move the 10-year Treasury about ×1.15 a normal day — not significant, and with 150 releases that is a confident no.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/cpi-impact-on-the-us-dollar/https://macroornoise.com/cpi-impact-on-the-us-dollar/CPI moves Treasury yields hard but the dollar only mildly: about ×1.3 a normal day, with no reliable direction. 37 releases measured against a baseline.Mon, 22 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/which-releases-move-the-treasury-curve/https://macroornoise.com/which-releases-move-the-treasury-curve/A release-day map across 3M-30Y Treasuries: jobs and CPI move the 2-5 year belly most, up to ×2.35 normal. Direction is unpredictable everywhere.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/do-us-data-releases-move-the-dollar-or-oil/https://macroornoise.com/do-us-data-releases-move-the-dollar-or-oil/Seven major U.S. releases mapped against the dollar and crude oil: none reliably moves either on the day, and PCE day is quieter than normal.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/how-we-test-and-the-full-grid/https://macroornoise.com/how-we-test-and-the-full-grid/The complete release-day grid: 8 U.S. releases against 9 markets, with the full method and multiple-testing correction. Most cells are honest nulls.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/why-some-releases-move-markets/https://macroornoise.com/why-some-releases-move-markets/The jobs report moves Treasuries at ×2 a normal day while GDP barely registers. One variable explains most of it: how much the market didn't know.Fri, 17 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/explorer/https://macroornoise.com/explorer/Pick a U.S. release, a market, a holding period and an era, and see the measured reaction versus a normal day. Free, interactive, public data.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/economic-calendar/https://macroornoise.com/economic-calendar/Every upcoming U.S. economic release — CPI, jobs, PPI, PCE, GDP, retail, jobless claims, FOMC — with how much each one has typically moved markets.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/what-actually-happened-database/https://macroornoise.com/what-actually-happened-database/1,667 U.S. releases since 2000 — CPI, PPI, jobs, PCE, retail — with the reported number and how Treasuries and the dollar moved that day.Tue, 21 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/release-log/https://macroornoise.com/release-log/A running record: every recent CPI, jobs, PPI, PCE and retail release, what it reported, and exactly how Treasuries or the dollar moved that day.Thu, 30 Jul 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/what-is-an-event-study/https://macroornoise.com/what-is-an-event-study/A plain-language guide to the method behind every result here: baselines, direction versus size, significance, and multiple-testing correction.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT https://macroornoise.com/glossary/https://macroornoise.com/glossary/Plain-language definitions of the economic releases, markets, and statistical terms used across Macro or Noise.Fri, 26 Jun 2026 08:30:00 GMT